Market Update – October 2025

A Mason’s Mill & Lumber Co. market update in response to the latest article released by Newsweek concerning US Housing Market Warning Signal From Lumber Prices. Note this is the perspective of Mason’s Mill and does not nessasarily reflect the market or industry as a whole.

Market Conditions and Our Client Base

While the baseline price for softwood lumber has declined on commodity species, there are several factors that should be taken into consideration with regard to our particular customer base.  As we have noted previously, the majority of our client base is the ultra-high-end custom home builder and the peripheral trades that service that segment of the construction market. Just as higher interest rates were not a significant consideration for many of the people contracting to have these homes built, since they are often cash buyers, a weakened softwood commodity market really has no impact on the builders that service this market segment. In fact, those builders will take advantage of lower-cost softwoods used in framing, trusses, and similar core construction components.  Our business with this customer base remains strong, and new starts are coming up at a steady pace.

Remodeling Market Outlook

If interest rates continue to decline, I think we’ll see an increase in activity from our remodeler customer base. People who have put off remodeling due to high interest rates should re-enter the market as interest rates fall and initiate delayed projects. We are hopeful that rates continue to come down, as that can only bode well for our overall business.

The Advantage of Location

  Another factor affecting our specific business that is often overlooked in “big picture” strategization, yet for which we are always grateful, is our location. We continue to see premium lots being bought and developed in the neighborhoods where our customers build, as well as tear-downs being bought in peripheral areas where new high-end construction continues to be strong. Regular polling of our traditional customer base is positive, with many reporting strong order files moving into 2026.